UKRAINIAN ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS

FOR THE WEEK ENDING JANUARY 21.

 

27 JANUARY 2000

SOURCE: US EMBASSY KIEV

 

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SUMMARY

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1. THIS CABLE SUMMARIZES UKRAINIAN ECONOMIC AND

FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS WRITTEN ABOUT IN THE PRESS

DURING THE WEEK ENDING JANUARY 21.  THE PRESIDENT

APPOINTED THREE DEPUTY ECONOMIC MINISTERS.  THE IMF

MISSION DEPARTED WITHOUT RECOMMENDING A RESUMPTION OF

EFF DISBURSEMENT TO UKRAINE. THE GOU BEGAN CONTACTING

FOREIGN BOND HOLDERS ABOUT DEBT RESTRUCTURING.  SOME

CURRENCY RESTRICTIONS WERE LIFTED.  PARLIAMENT

APPROVED VOLODYMYR STELMAKH AS NBU GOVERNOR, BUT THE

VOTE MAY BE CHALLENGED.  THE NBU STATED IT WOULD NOT

CONDUCT MONETARY POLICY TO SUPPORT THE EXCHANGE RATE.

PARLIAMENT AMENDED LAND COST INDEXING PROCEDURES.  END

SUMMARY.

 

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RESIDENT APPOINTS DEPUTY ECONOMIC MINISTERS

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2. PRESIDENT KUCHMA RE-APPOINTED VIKTOR KALNYK AS

FIRST DEPUTY ECONOMICS MINISTER AND BOTH IHOR SHUMYLO

AND ANDRIY HONCHARUK (FORMER MINISTER OF FOREIGN

ECONOMIC RELATIONS AND TRADE) AS DEPUTY ECONOMICS

MINISTERS, THE PRESIDENTIAL PRESS SERVICE REPORTED.

 

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IMF MISSION POSTPONES DECISION TO RENEW DISBURSEMENTS

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3. WHILE VISITING KIEV JANUARY 11-22, INTERNATIONAL

MONETARY FUND (IMF) MISSION HEAD MOHAMMED SHADMAN-

VALAVI SAID THAT HE WOULD NOT RECOMMEND THE IMF BOARD

OF DIRECTORS RENEW DISBURSEMENTS TO UKRAINE UNDER ITS

EXTENDED FUNDING FACILITY (EFF) PROGRAM THIS MONTH.

THE IMF SUSPENDED THE PROGRAM IN SEPTEMBER BECAUSE THE

GOU FAILED TO IMPLEMENT REQUIRED REFORMS.

 

4. ACCORDING TO SHADMAN-VALAVI, THE VISITING IMF

MISSION APPROVED THE GOU'S REFORM PROGRAM AND FOREIGN

DEBT REPAYMENT PLANS, BUT WOULD NOT CONSIDER RENEWING

CREDIT TO UKRAINE UNDER ITS USD 2.2 BILLION EFF

PROGRAM UNTIL AFTER PARLIAMENT RATIFIED THE 2000 STATE

BUDGET.  ACCORDING TO PRIME MINISTER YUSHCHENKO, THE

GOU NOW EXPECTED TO SUBMIT A CORRECTED DRAFT 2000

BUDGET TO PARLIAMENT IN EARLY FEBRUARY.

 

5. LAST YEAR, UKRAINE REPAID MORE TO THE IMF THAN IT

RECEIVED.  UKRAINE REPAID LOANS WORTH USD 558.5

MILLION, PLUS AN ADDITIONAL USD 109 MILLION IN

INTEREST.  UKRAINE RECEIVED LOANS WORTH USD 446.6

MILLION IN 1999.

 

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GOU NEGOTIATES DEBT RESCHEDULING

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6. THE GOU DID NOT MAKE PAYMENTS ON USD 18 MILLION

WORTH OF BONDS MATURING ON JANUARY 20, ACCORDING TO

INTERFAX-UKRAINE.  THE BONDS, WHICH WERE ISSUED BY

CHASE MANHATTAN BANK LUXEMBOURG S.A., WERE ORIGINALLY

RESCHEDULED 18 MONTHS AGO.  ACCORDING TO PRIME

MINISTER YUSHCHENKO, THE GOU WAS CONDUCTING

NEGOTIATIONS AND WOULD AVOID DEFAULT.  ACCORDING TO

ING BARINGS, THE INVESTMENT BANK CHOSEN BY THE GOU TO

MANAGE THE RESCHEDULING OF UKRAINE'S FOREIGN DEBT, THE

FINANCE MINISTRY COMPLETED PREPARATIONS FOR AN

EXCHANGE OFFER ON UKRAINE'S FOREIGN COMMERCIAL DEBT

COMMITMENTS AND WILL MAKE THE OFFER TO ITS CREDITORS

FORMALLY IN EARLY FEBRUARY.  THE GOU PLANNED TO

RESCHEDULE BONDS WORTH USD 1.9 BILLION MATURING IN

2000 AND 2001, ACCORDING TO AN ING BARINGS' PRESS

RELEASE.

 

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SOME FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESTRICTIONS LIFTED

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7. ON JANUARY 20, AN NBU RESOLUTION ALLOWING BANKS TO

ISSUE FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS TO UKRAINIAN COMPANIES

CAME INTO EFFECT.  THE RESOLUTION ALSO LIFTED THE BAN

ON THE PURCHASE OF FOREIGN CURRENCY AT THE DOMESTIC

MARKET TO REPAY FOREIGN CURRENCY LOANS.

 

8. ANOTHER NBU RESOLUTION, SCHEDULED TO COME INTO

EFFECT JANUARY 28, WILL ALLOW COMPANIES WITH FOREIGN

CAPITAL THAT WERE CREATED BETWEEN 1992-1996, TO CHOOSE

WHAT TO DO WITH THEIR FOREIGN CURRENCY REVENUES.

THESE JOINT VENTURES WERE PREVIOUSLY OBLIGED TO SELL

THEIR FOREIGN CURRENCY REVENUES AT THE INTERBANK

MARKET.  A SIMILAR PROVISION HAD BEEN INCLUDED IN THE

LAW "ON FOREIGN INVESTMENT," WHICH IS NO LONGER IN

EFFECT.  THE RESOLUTION ALSO ALLOWED OTHER ECONOMIC

ENTITIES  (I.E., UKRAINIAN COMPANIES, OR FOREIGN

COMPANIES REGISTERED LATER THAN 1996) TO ASK THE NBU

THAT THE REQUIREMENT TO SELL FOREIGN CURRENCY REVENUES

BE WAIVED ON AN INDIVIDUAL BASIS.  THE TWO MEASURES

WERE INTENDED TO LIBERALIZE CURRENCY REGULATIONS AND

ENCOURAGE BANKS TO LEND TO COMPANIES.

 

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RADA MAJORITY APPROVES STELMAKH AS AN NBU GOVERNOR

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9. ON JANUARY 21, 239 PARLIAMENTARIANS APPROVED

VOLODYMYR STELMAKH'S APPOINTMENT TO THE POSITION OF

NBU GOVERNOR.  ALTHOUGH A MAJORITY OF PARLIAMENTARIANS

APPROVED THE APPOINTMENT, THE VOTE MAY BE CHALLENGED

BECAUSE OF PARLIAMENT'S SPLIT INTO RIVAL ASSEMBLIES

AND THE REFUSAL OF PARLIAMENT SPEAKER TKACHENKO TO

SIGN THE DECISION.

 

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HREBENYK: NBU NOT TO LIMIT HRYVNIA SUPPLY

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10. THE NBU WILL NO LONGER MANIPULATE THE HRYVNIA

MONEY SUPPLY TO MAINTAIN EXCHANGE RATE STABILITY, NBU

MONETARY DEPARTMENT HEAD HREBENYK ANNOUNCED JANUARY

20.  SHE SAID THAT THE MONETARY SITUATION HAD CHANGED

SINCE THE END OF 1999, WHEN EXPANSION OF THE MONEY

SUPPLY RESULTING FROM LARGE SOCIAL PAYMENTS MADE PRIOR

TO THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS WEAKENED THE HRYVNIA'S

STABILITY.  HREBENYK CHARACTERIZED THE CURRENT MARKET

SITUATION AS "NORMAL" AND SAID THAT THE MONETARY

SUPPLY LEVEL WAS "WELL REGULATED."  HREBENYK

IDENTIFIED INTEREST RATE REDUCTION AND INCREASED BANK

LENDING AS PRIORITIES OF THE CURRENT NBU POLICY.

 

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PARLIAMENT INTRODUCES LAND COST INDEXING

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11. ON DECEMBER 22, PARLIAMENT AMENDED THE LAND FEE

PAYMENT LAW TO INTRODUCE A PROCESS BY WHICH LAND

VALUES CAN BE ADJUSTED.  EVERY YEAR ON JANUARY 1, A

COEFFICIENT DETERMINED BY THE CABINET OF MINISTERS

WILL BE USED TO REASSESS LAND VALUE.  BECAUSE LAND

ASSESSMENTS WERE NOT PREVIOUSLY INDEXED, DEVALUATION

DECREASED THE AMOUNT OF FEES THAT WERE COLLECTED BASED

ON LAND VALUE.  LAND VALUES ARE USED TO CALCULATE LAND

RENT, FEES FOR REGISTRATION OF LAND RENT CONTRACTS,

AND FOR LAND PRICE DETERMINATION FOR SELLING PURPOSES.

 

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EXCHANGE RATES

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12. HRYVNIA/DOLLAR EXCHANGE RATES WERE AS FOLLOWS:

 

                 01/17  01/18  01/19  01/20  01/21

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OFFICIAL RATE    5.4253 5.4604 5.5191 5.5253 5.5227

INTERBANK RATE   5.5800 5.5843 5.5756 5.5463 5.5271

KIEV CASH RATE   5.6205 5.6365 5.6538 5.6594 5.6545

MOSCOW CASH RATE 5.6880 5.6480 5.6500 5.6420 5.6520

 

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UICEX PRECIOUS METAL TRADING

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13. TRADING IN PRECIOUS METALS AT THE UICEX FOR THE

WEEK WAS AS FOLLOWS:

 

SILVER    UAH   47.89 PER ONE TROY OUNCE

GOLD      UAH 1913.89 PER ONE TROY OUNCE

PLATINUM  UAH 2480.23 PER ONE TROY OUNCE

PALLADIUM UAH 2057.27 PER ONE TROY OUNCE

 

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MAIN STOCK INDICES

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14. RESULTS OF UKRAINE'S MAIN STOCK INDICES FOR THE

WEEK WERE AS FOLLOWS (AS OF JANUARY 20):

 

                    WEEKLY CHANGE, PCT

INDEX          POINTS    IN UAH    IN USD

-----          ------    ------    ------

WOOD-15        1160       8.43      5.22

PFTS           43.14      4.10      N/A

 

 

15. KEY INTEREST RATES FOR THE WEEK WERE AS FOLLOWS

(AS OF JANUARY 20, 1999):

 

NBU DISCOUNT RATE:  45 PCT (SINCE 24 MAY 1999)

NBU LOMBARD RATE:   50 PCT (SINCE 24 MAY 1999)

 

KIEV INTERBANK      AVG. ANNUAL   CHANGE FROM

   RATES               PCT       LAST WEEK,PCT

--------------      -----------   -------------

  ONE-DAY              23.6           10.9

  SEVEN-DAY            34.5           2.4

  14-DAY               45.0           -1.6

  30-DAY               59.5          -6.7

  60-DAY               55.0         -22.5

  90-DAY               55.0         -25.0