21 JAN 00
FM AMEMBASSY CHISINAU
1. THE DECEMBER ISSUE OF "MOLDOVAN ECONOMIC TRENDS"
(MET) PUBLISHED BY THE EU'S TACIS AND THE MOLDOVAN MINISTRY
OF ECONOMY AND REFORMS, UPDATES THE STATISTICS
CONTAINED IN THE NOVEMBER ISSUE. HIGHLIGHTS AND
COMMENTS FOLLOW.
GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
----------------------
2. FOR THE FIRST HALF OF 1999 NOMINAL GDP AMOUNTED TO
MDL 4.118 BILLION, OR 16.8 PERCENT MORE THAN THE FIRST HALF OF
1998. FOR THE SAME PERIOD, REAL GDP DECLINED BY 5.3
PERCENT. THE DECEMBER ISSUE DOES NOT PROVIDE ANY
LATER FIGURE FOR GDP. NOTE: ACCORDING TO PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATES PRESENTED BY THE MINISTER OF ECONOMY AND REFORMS, IN
1999 REAL GDP DECLINED BY ABOUT 5 PERCENT. END NOTE.
INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT
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3. OVERALL INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT IN JANUARY-NOVEMBER 1999
WAS MOLDOVAN LEI (MDL) 7.136 BILLION IN CURRENT PRICES. REAL
OUTPUT DECREASED BY 9.7 PERCENT COMPARED TO THE
SAME PERIOD IN 1998. PRODUCTION DECLINED IN MANY SECTORS. OUTPUT
FROM THE FOOD AND BEVERAGES SECTOR DROPPED BY 22.2
PERCENT, INCLUDING DECREASES OF 21.9 PERCENT IN WINE, 26.9
PERCENT IN SUGAR, 16.2 PERCENT IN DAIRY PRODUCTS, AND 23.4 PERCENT
IN BREAD. OUTPUTS OF TOBACCO, TEXTILES, AND CHEMICAL
PRODUCTS WERE LIGHTLY HIGHER THAN JANUARY-NOVEMBER 1998
LEVELS.
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
-----------------------
4. IN JANUARY-SEPTEMBER 1999 AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN
CURRENT PRICES WAS MDL 4.076 BILLION. AGRICULTURAL
OUTPUT WAS 7 PERCENT LOWER THAN IN THE SAME PERIOD IN 1998 DUE
TO A 9 PERCENT DROP IN THE CROP-GROWING SECTOR AND A 3
PERCENT REDUCTION IN ANIMAL PRODUCTION.
INFLATION
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5. THE CONSUMER PRICE INDEX SHOWED AN INCREASE OF 4.3
PERCENT IN NOVEMBER. PRICES FOR FOOD INCREASED BY 4.7
PERCENT, FOR NON-FOOD BY 3.3 PERCENT, AND FOR SERVICES
BY 4.3 PERCENT. ON A CUMULATIVE BASIS, CONSUMER PRICES
ROSE BY 36.9 PERCENT OVER THE FIRST ELEVEN MONTHS IN 1999.
6. ACCORDING TO THE DEPARTMENT OF STATISTICAL AND
SOCIOLOGICAL ANALYSIS (DSSA), THE CPI INCREASED BY 5
PERCENT IN DECEMBER. DSSA REPORTED THAT CONSUMER PRICES FOR
THE WHOLE YEAR ROSE BY 43.7 PERCENT ON A CUMULATIVE BASIS
(DECEMBER 1998 TO DECEMBER 1999). A RECENT DSSA
REPORT SHOWED A 39 PERCENT AVERAGED ANNUAL INFLATION RATE.
CURRENCY DEPRECIATION
---------------------
7. AFTER THE LEU'S PERIOD OF STABILITY FROM JULY TO EARLY
OCTOBER, A NEW DEPRECIATION TOOK PLACE IN NOVEMBER,
1999. BY NOVEMBER 18 THE OFFICIAL EXCHANGE RATE REACHED A
PEAK OF MDL 12.61 PER 1 USD. HOWEVER, THE COMMERCIAL EXCHANGE
RATE FELL TO MDL 13.45 PER 1 USD. IN JANUARY-NOVEMBER 1999 THE
LOCAL CURRENCY WEAKENED BY 40.6 PERCENT AGAINST THE
U.S. DOLLAR AND BY 11.4 PERCENT AGAINST THE RUSSIAN RUBLE.
GOVERNMENT BUDGET
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8. IN JANUARY-NOVEMBER 1999 THE CONSOLIDATED BUDGET
RECEIVED MDL 2,602.8 MILLION, INCLUDING MDL 111.5 MILLION
GRANTS FROM OFFICIAL DONORS. CONSOLIDATED
EXPENDITURES REACHED MDL 2,916.3 MILLION FOR THE SAME PERIOD. THE
GOVERNMENT SPENT MDL 701.2 MILLION ON DEBT SERVICING,
INCLUDING MDL 327.4 MILLION ON DOMESTIC DEBT AND MDL
373.8 MILLION ON EXTERNAL DEBT SERVICING. BY THE FIRST OF
DECEMBER 1999, BUDGET CASH DEFICIT TOTALED TO MDL 313.5
MILLION. EXTERNAL BORROWING FOR THE BUDGET DEFICIT
FINANCING AMOUNTED TO MDL 240.8 MILLION.
9. ACCORDING TO THE LAW, THE ANNUAL BUDGET SHOULD
HAVE BEEN ADOPTED BY PARLIAMENT BEFORE DECEMBER 5. HOWEVER,
DUE TO THE GOVERNMENTAL CRISIS, THE 2000 BUDGET WAS NOT
ADOPTED ON TIME. NOTE: THE 2000 BUDGET DRAFT SHOULD BE SUBMITTED
TO PARLIAMENT FOR CONSIDERATION SOMETIME IN FEBRUARY
2000. THE LAW REQUIRES PARLIAMENT TO HAVE THREE READINGS
BEFORE IT CAN PASS THE BUDGET. END NOTE.
EXTERNAL SECTOR
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10. IN JANUARY-NOVEMBER 1999 EXTERNAL TRADE DROPPED
TO USD 911.4 MILLION, WITH USD 415.4 MILLION IN EXPORTS AND USD 496
MILLION IN IMPORTS. THE TOTAL TRADE FIGURE WAS ALMOST
HALF THE AMOUNT IN THE SAME PERIOD IN 1998. THE RATIO OF
EXPORTS TO IMPORTS WAS 84 PERCENT IN JANUARY-NOVEMBER 1999,
COMPARED TO ONLY 63 PERCENT IN THE SAME PERIOD OF 1998.
11. THE TRADE DEFICIT REACHED USD 80.6 MILLION IN THE FIRST
ELEVEN MONTHS OF 1999, THE LOWEST FIGURE COMPARED TO
THE SIMILAR PERIODS OF 1994-1998. A POSITIVE TRADE BALANCE
WAS REGISTERED IN NOVEMBER 1999. IN SEPTEMBER-NOVEMBER
1999 MONTHLY EXPORT VOLUMES EXCEEDED THOSE OF 1998. THIRTY
SIX PERCENT OF TOTAL EXPORTS IN THE FIRST ELEVEN MONTHS OF
1999 WERE TRADED IN AUTUMN.